I don't think it has to be that black and white. He could have...

I don't think it has to be that black and white. He could have progressed these relationships towards an LOI, with timing and amounts still up in the air. He might have been able to secure more if he met other conditions before the letter, or might have been playing with the timing with the next CR to maximise shareholder value.

No doubt that the 249D has forced his hand. I would say he's gone to these parties and said, the timeline has changed, we'll need something in writing asap, even if it's only the $200/300m.

So in essence, both 1. and 2. might be true.