Hi ASX101, why i think the Refinery EIS draft is closer that we think. I accept that the earlier timelines were completely unrealist.
As far back as Q4 2017 we were given strong indications that the Refinery EIS was that it would be filed by the end of that year then shift and shit and so on. These were completely unrealistic when we look back and see prerequisite events that needed to be settled before an EIS draft could be concluded and filed.
I think we can say that all prerequisite events are now inplace, exept possibly, the weaving into design , construction and evironmental impact of the Titanium Pigment Plant.
A roughed out timeline looks a bit like this;
2009 the comencement of the mine concentrate and benefaction together with Refinery leaching and solvent extraction process that we now know as TIVAN was concieved with the assistance of CSIRO. We now know SMS either were on board or came on board at this time.
in 2015 some 6 years later with continuous optimising and refining of that early process the results culminated in the construction of an industry standard pilot plant replicating a commercial plant. That pilot plant ran successfully and resulted the 2015 DFS. The 3 core feedstocks for product lines are established as achievable at commercially acceptable extraction pecentages and grades. At that point TNG ,CSIRO and SMS would have had the base data to compare potential waste products and operating environment impacts against commercial refineries around the globe. As a consequence in the same year, 2015, TNG filed its NoI to construct the Refinery at Darwin with NT EPA. That commenced the EIS process and in mid 2016 NT EPA provided the ToR. The EIS draft must address the matters set out in that ToR.
Therefore at 2015 the foundation of the TIVAN process is well advanced with optimisation of concentration feedstock and in general terms the leaching and solvent extraction process settled. From that point forward its continued potimisation and settling the end product from the Titanium pigment plant.
2/2/16 , TNG announce entering a Binding aggreement for SMS to oversea the detailed engineering, design, costings and tendering for construction of TIVAN refinery. Also to conduct the DD on the DFS for the purposes of the advancement of finance through ECA and therefor KfW bank. The expectation isbto guarantee process and construction.
5/5/16, TNG and SMS agree to jointly pursue the commertialisation of the TIVAN technology beyond the Darwin plant, therefore to third parties.
20/11/17, TNG updates it DFS identifying a number of savings in OPEX as aresult of the continued optimisation but keeps open the posdible Titanium pigment plant route either cloride or sulphate but leaning toward the chloride route. There have been meeting with KfW personal by this junture and further meetings signalled by year end. The TIVAN process is settled and any further developments would be as a result of " negotiations with the providers of process guarantors or lenders". There is no mention environmental considerations or concerns.
26/2/18, breakthrough announcement for TIVAN titanium pigment plant route. Due to low iron content in titanium pigment plant feedstock a step in the process can be eliminated and the sulphate route now availble in an environmentally friendly process.
26/9/18, Ti-Cons engaged to design the Pigment plant and to provide process and product guarantees.
2/12/18 SMS to progress the Detailed pre finance FEED process and to provide process, production and effectively construction guarantees.
13/12/18, KfW mandate for lead financing entered into. The parameters of finance are agreed and will be moved forward with the comfort of the product and prossessing guarantees in place.
20/3/19, APM who have overall resonsibilty of delivery of the EIS draft have engaged 10 seperate consultancies to finalise specific aspect of the EIS draft. They are also concluding the seasonal aspects of the assessment at this time.
22/3/19, TNG announce that the pigment plants first product will be the whiter than white
pigmant TNG360 which is now under patenting process.
15/5/19, DKSH titanium pigment off take finalised as binding.
24/6/19, Advice by way of news letter that Ti- Cons have "progressed the preliminary design of the pigment plant". Its refered to as an environmentally friendly process.
So in summary SMS have had the had the responsibility of nailing down the detailed enginering design of the TIVAN refinery since early 2016. Thats 3 years and is now subject to comprehensive process and product guarantees. The outstanding (not settled) component was the pigment plant route which was settled on in early 2018 with final product selection in settled before 3/19. This process has been refined by CSIRO and SMS then forwarded to Ti-Cons for construction plans under process and product guarantees in 9/18. All environmental issues are the comprehensive focus of APM who are working with the full range of consultants and seasonal aspects have been concuded. They are also working closely with NT EPA along the way.
The last piece of the puzzle to be linked in was the pigment plant and it seems to me that the other various components of the EIS draft would have been near on comlpete subject to the pigment plan factor. It wont take long to sow it all together bearing mind SMS's familiarity with the evolution of the pigment plant and their roll in defining the route and end product settled on.
These are just my thoughts but based on available information, the value of the comprehensive guarantees from teir 1 companies and the involvment of KfW who wouldnt risk their reputation. Yes some bird instinct too.
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