With all due respect, this project is worth a lot more than 30...

With all due respect, this project is worth a lot more than 30 cents and in the fullness of time investors will receive value. Your exit price/valuation should be based off financial fundamentals the project will deliver, not the inferred positiveness of announcements or view of the board.

I’m not going to suggest how investors should think or feel, however at this stage of the game its psychology with yourself – it sounds to me a lot of holders are defeated with a lot of emotional focus on what the board have or haven’t completed in a defined time frame versus assessing the project financial outputs and current status objectively.

I've crunched the latest optimisation feasibility/NPV and believe this project is as strong as ever. It will be attractive to both debt financiers and equity suitors. Globally, there’s only a handful of projects of this magnitude and guess what…..you guys are invested in it! Tick.

Mt. Peake/TIVAN seems like a real mining project now and it is very much achievable.

A couple of exceptional outcomes for the project in the recent past that have probably been disregarded due to focus on the PPP of the SP and board:

1. A simple, single stage, 37 year life of mine delivering 17 cps EPS annually (assuming no dilution) > apply a 8-10 times multiple to those earnings.

1. Significant reduction in CAPEX of 15% from AUD853m to AUD725m. Given this will only be confirmed upon completion of FEED, the model diligently applies most of this saving to a contingency. You might recall way back at our original DFS we were AUD980m for stage 1 CAPEX. How far we have come…..just $250m.

1. Kfw are 10 months into their mandate with DD and look at the key items to drop out - simplify the mining plan and fix the liquidity of your register. If those are the key amendments and it feels like they both have Kfw paws on them, I’m very comfortable DD is progressing swimmingly.

1. Mine Management Plan submitted – keep an eye on this website: https://dpir.nt.gov.au/mining-and-e...ics/authorised-mining-sites/mining-securities

If we can get the full ticket size of USD600m from Kfw (AUD880m), there is limited dilution as our primary CAPEX is fully funded (on what is known today). The risk on dilution is the BOOT model (currently pegged at AUD562m) however suspect a significant reduction on the back of improvements to the Titanium process and the shift from pig iron to 64% hematite. If the BOOT model is not feasible and needs to be funded, that is a large amount of mezz and/or equity. On the flip side of that if you don’t BOOT the various processes outside TIVAN, the $210/t operating cost comes down significant to about $175-180/t by my assumed savings, slightly offsetting the dilution is EPS with a better C/F position.

I don’t discount any of the feelings, cynicism and scepticism on this forum as the board are ultimately accountable and it has been painfully slow and to date and not financial rewarding.

What investors should be asking themselves is what really gets us across the line and what is going to impact us.

The board are responsible for the strategy and at this stage, I take comfort that it is not strategy but a process that gets us to financial close. SMS who are finalising the FEED and will ultimately be EPC and Kfw are the one’s securing the USD600m in debt. It’s the Germans that will deliver our value from here guys. It’s all just a process and the biggest risk to a process is time.