I'm sure the readers will get there by themselves but just to help you along with the back story here.
For those following the monazite and uranium space you would be familiar with energy fuels. With one of the reasons monazite being hard to process being the radioactive content, it makes sense to harvest both. A lot of China supply goes down this route. In Australia we should get our head into the sand (mineral sand that is) and extract via techniques like what Medallion have but that's an aside....
Anyway energy fuels started shipping a while back to Neo which is the only real option for Western produced magnets. Neo itself trades at a quite reasonable PE given its importance you may ask why they started sourcing from America and why their PE is so low. One reason is their magnets have to be costed higher than the Chinese alternatives. Well it turns out that even though their magnets are considerably more expensive they see an opportunity to expand anyway but were concerned with their reliance in supply from Russia which started having issues. Obviously since the invasion these concerns would be even more elevated.
So the first problem of competing on price could have a solution if the EU pass the tax incentives. You can read more about that here https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-may-drive-eu-back-to-china-as-source-for-rare-earths-69217025
So if it turns out they could compete on price then if Neo could solve the feed problem there is no reason the company couldn't trade at lynas multiples and scale their operations quite easily since they have the in house ip for the processing with a very long history.
HAS setting up to supply NEO is really a dream match. They solve each other's problems, they should eventually merge into one company as it makes complete sense. HAS opportunistically gobbles up the deposits in the region with cash flow, NEO builds out new factories in the EU. The combined entity would overtake lynas since they would be going one step further and producing the magnets. I'm not saying it will happen but that is the dream outcome.
I would also say there could be certain car manufacturers that are concerned about the China supply chain that will be getting their teams to run their rulers over this. Could be a good opportunity to snap them both up now, rather than have to ask them to name their price in a few years time.
GLTAH and happy weekend.
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