Ann: Tomingley Debt Restructured, page-102

at the end of my explanation (the very first time I posted on this subject) why I think ALK are looking for 50-50 deal rather than being minority partner I also added a line you either missed or simply ignored as it's not in line with your narrative - see further below as I reposted.

Also, Nic is saying they want to extract clear value but not defining in any detail what that value is - beyond the money they spent exploring the NMPP.

He did pointed to mature discussion how it will be operated - to me (again - my interpretation only) is ALK might be dreaming to be involved on the operational side which is a pipedream if they are to attract a major. And if I am reading this correctly then no major will entertain this idea. ALK has zero experience in operating anything even remotely the size of NMPP and basically brings nothing to the table.


Yes, to extract recognition for the past and current efforts by bringing NMPP to where it is and yes, to recognition for the value of the metal in the ground - and every major will be willing to make that recognition.

Also - ALK (unless they produce decent exploration results from NMPP now) will not get much for any potential of the rest of the NMPP projects. Reason for this is because they did not explore them enough to demonstrate there is economic resource at any of them but Boda2/3 around 094 (assuming the follow up holes confirm decent grades). And no major will pay premium without evidence on this front.



"If I am right then ALK will only be able to attract mid-tier miner. EVN, Goldfields or similar caliber miner."

The statement clearly points that this is my view and I don't claim I am 100% I right.

Also my second post clearly shows that I don't claim 100% ALK wants 50-50 and that is my own view as I said "I hope I am wrong" and explained bit more why I think a major may not be willing to go with 50-50.


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Two lines from both posts where I touched on the subject:

"I hope I am wrong but 50-50 JV, as I said before, is not going to attract a major. NMPP is not big enough for that and ALK are yet to demonstrate any potential outside Boda/Kaiser/Boda2/3."

"And if I am right then the chances of a major to agree on 50-50 are very slim - hence why I think ALK may end up with mid-tier miner as JV partner."

Both point that this are my own views and speculations as this is all we do here - we run scenarios and speculate.

To add - My views are based on what ALK expects (as per Nic's interview) and wants to see in JV, the size of NMPP resource and what Majors want in JV deals.

NMPP is not Oyu Tolgoi where even 50-50 venture will give the major around 2Bt resource. NMPP is 800Mt resource which is still very large but borderline where majors will be keen to do 50-50. Majors will prefer more like 75-25 deal for 800Mt resource - unless there is clear evidence the resource can grow significantly above that number.
Also majors will probably want 25-30Mt (if not larger) plant in order to achieve meaningful production to meet their internal metrics. And due to NMPP being on the lower end of the grade it means majors will want larger share of the pie.

Hence why I can't see how a major will be willing to accept 50-50. And if ALK wants to play hard ball and tries to extract values that may not be there then this will limit how attractive NMPP will look to any major.

In short for ALK to extract everything they want that (to me at least) is they are looking for 50-50 while majors may not be willing to play that tune.

Example ALK may be willing to 75-25 if a major pays $300m one-off payment. But if one sees what EVN paid for Northparks for around 80% stake while the project comes with a plant and operating mine and all the expertise, it seems $300m is wishful thinking considering all the risks that come with developing new operation from scratch.

Again - I hope I am wrong as I said this before.