Ann: Tomingley Debt Restructured, page-122

looks like SP is set for more falls in expectations of poor Q results and significant budget blow-out from the expansion project.

if ALK surprises and hit the production target and the budget blowout is not as significant as many think then SP will explode higher. but if ALK misses on both then SP will probably fall below 52c.

unless ALK produces some really strong exploration results.

SS will not matter much (unfortunately) if ALK really messed on both - production side and budget for the expansion project - due to poor sentiment obviously.

the expansion budget is almost certain to report massive blowout (happy to be corrected by ALK if they care to release clear comms on this subject) so we are now left with the production side.

it would have been lot better if ALK released new production range with the higher number being the mid-point of the current range and the lower number be about 10Koz below the current low number. This would have meant ALK could miss the target but not by much and still have the potential to hit the original target.

Another sign of incompetent BoDs and MD who don't know how to communicate with the market. The worst one can do, is keep the market suspended.
Now everyone waits to see how bad things are which will water down any potentially positive reding from SS and/or exploration results (unless these exploration results are real peach).

Talking about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory again... no wonder Nic could not articulate (on the Crux interview where he dropped the bomb of about 6 weeks behind schedule..) if SS will have positive effect on the SP.


But yeah... must be sentiment.