It is extremely likely that over the coming years, copper supply growth will remain muted. Given the huge slowdown in discoveries, the weak reserve additions over the past decade, and the inability to add reserves by lowering the cut-off grade, it seems difficult to see how reserves and production can grow materially.The copper bull market is now underway. Investors are beginning to appreciate the demand story surrounding copper but most investors do not understand the complex issues now affecting supply.
Between 2000 and 2020, high copper prices allowed compa- nies to grow their reserve basis even in the face of limited new copper discoveries. Because of increasing depletion issues, the lack of new world class mines coming online, and geological constraints embedded in copper porphyry deposits, our research tells us that copper supply will show little growth this decade. Strong demand is about to collide with severe copper supply problems. Copper prices are heading much, much higher.
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