"There is earnings growth coming out of the covid period, but...

"There is earnings growth coming out of the covid period, but unfortunately there is suspect capital allocation going on at CSL, the ROIC has collapsed.
Vifor is a massive bet that needs to pay off, but honestly I would not be surprised if that is written down by some amount in the coming years. Most big acquisitions destroy value."

@JoeGambler,

Your cautionary tone represents wise council, I think, given there is large precedent for company managers - even respected ones - making sub-optimal strategic decisions in chasing growth.

And the problem for large companies such as CSL is that in order to move the growth dial, by mathematical definition the size of the strategic bets that need to be taken, get progressively larger. And with large bets comes elevated risk.

As a CSL shareholder, the funding of trials for a few hundreds of millions of dollars doesn't concern me (I understand and accept the probabilistic nature of the outcomes of such activities, as evidenced by today's announcement).

Rather, what does worry me is the making of acquisitions valued in the tens of billions of dollars because corporate M&A is a highly imprecise science and the road is littered with the carcasses of value-destructive acquisitions.

And as you rightly say, the jury is still not quite in with a verdict on the Vifor deal, and that appeared to be a pretty straightforward purchase at the time.

CSL is priced for perpetual growth and so when things happen (such as what the market thinks could be a potential source of growth, not materialising as one), there is a rather meaningful de-rating hole into which the stock could potentially fall.

.