The ASX's decision to wash its hands of the PGH delisting strategy was not totally unexpected. When it comes to standing up to powerful multinationals and wealthy individuals, the ASX has about as much spine as a tapeworm.
Running up to, and for some time after, the EGM on the 12thJune, (the results of which are a foregone conclusion, but at which all shareholders should still cast their vote) shareholders need to brace themselves for the mother of all disinformation and fear campaign.The message will be that there will no longer be an accessible market to buy and sell shares, and anyway, they won't be worth a crumpet. There's bound to be the usual subliminal message that remaining shareholders will somehow be punished. Just how successful this will be to the final outcome is a moot point as most remaining shareholders, I suspect, will be totally unimpressed. However, I'm sure RG is banking on a massive selloff in the last few days.
Under normal circumstances the value of a company is reflected in its share price. However, every man and his dog is aware that the current PGH price is well below par. I'm no expert but guess the uncertainty about the future is a significant factor, but I have a nagging suspicion that there is some market manipulation going on here.
It has already been noted that getting any meaningful financial data out of the Company has been like trying to squeeze blood out of a stone, so the threat that after delisting we will get even less information could be difficult to accomplish. But the paucity of information can only point to one thing; the reality that 'No news means there is only good news'.
Their PR Department's attempts to cast the bleakest shadow over the future has reached ludicrous extremes. They're still banging on about the shipping disruptions during the pandemic which frankly is ancient history. Then there are Trump's on again off again tariffs which are described as a major negative. When or if any of these tariffs finally comes to pass, they will have little to zero effect on PGH business.
Anyway, the issue of a fair price for the remaining shares has now come into sharp focus.
A brief relevant history and comment.
January 2013 PGH, IPO shares @ $3.80
August 2018 PGH purchase of TIC group @ $5.3095 plus $62M cash
So I guess TIC group would really want more than $5.00 plus their unpaid $30m to break even.
Prior to the takeover campaign RG was purchasing shares at more than $3.00 to bring his ownership to about 50%. If RG buys shares at over $3.00, then it stands to reason that he thinks they are worth at least that and probably a lot more.
October 2023 The Kroll (so called) Independent Expert Report. This mob's dodgy calculations had more holes in it than a Swiss cheese. My guess is that they started off with their desired result of $0.82 to $1.24 and worked backwards. This statistical manipulation is an all too common practice. Raper Capital's exposure and analysis of Kroll's figures has a conservative low end valuation of $3.00.
The brilliant idea to delist could yet become a two edged sword. Every analysis I've seen show that the investments which have been made will start generating improved profitability and therefore I imagine RG would like to wrap this thing up sooner rather than later. But we needn't be in any hurry, indeed, the longer we hang on, the longer we remain shareholders and the greater is the leverage we can exert. Denying us the ability to sell in a perverse way makes it easier for us to hold on. Time is on our side. For me, I don't mind remaining a shareholder and benefiting from what I believe will be a profitable future, or being paid out with a genuinely respectable figure, but I don't appreciate being treated as a fool that can be taken for a ride.
And while we are thinking about all this, shareholders will continue to need an information forum. Hotcopper has served us well, but how many even know of its existence? As a first step I believe all shareholders should be formally informed about this site (or any other) and how to access it. The next stage would be to set up a facility where shares can be traded; there is always a steady stream of investors who for whatever reason wish to raise or lower their portfolio. Perhaps someone can come up with a workable proposal.
Finally, a big thank you to those members who have spent so much time, effort and money in keeping us minnows informed. Without you we would have been served up a long time ago.
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