Ann: TPG acknowledges ACCC decision, page-56

Although I believe the market is pricing in a better than 50:50 outcome for the Federal court, TPM was valued at $5.50+ prior to the merger announcement.

The Telco sector environment as a whole has significantly improved since this time as evidenced by reduced shorting, and the significant improvements in SP for virtually all industry participants, and in particular VOC & TLS.

The likelihood of a Labor victory & subsequent writing down of NBN's carrying value has substantially increased since the announcement of the merger, and this in particular would have significant ramifications for TPM's profitability and value.

The NBN's wholesale pricing structure has changed significantly since the merger announcement. It has forced retailers into selling higher bandwidth plans with greater CVC, which favours larger infrastructure based telco's such as TPM, and has already seen smaller competitors exit the market. (Another master stroke by Sims and the ACCC there. - Clowns)

The Voda/TPG JV for mobile spectrum will persist in the event of a failed action in the Federal Court. This will almost certainly improve Voda's network and TPM's wholesale access to it.

TPM will need not divest it's mobile network in Singapore if the merger does not proceed.

And here's and interesting one for you all:

If TPM's merger with Vodafone is unsuccessful, why would they not proceed to acquire VOC?

No doubt this would raise further concerns on some fronts with the ACCC (this time around the concern would be fixed line).

However most of the markets they would compete in would fall outside the ACCC's area of juristiction.

Fibre from Singapore through Australia, across the ditch to NZ & up to the 'Internet' in Guam.

Mobile spectrum in Singapore & Australia.

Significant customers bases in Australia & NZ (with significant opportunity in Singapore).

Don't underestimate Teoh for one second!