Ann: Trading Halt-AKK.AX, page-83

Who remembers this anthem great lyric "Short memories must have a ... short memory...."

@gassed - so I guess you've defined "new management" as sans Cottee. Does that mean "new project" is also the same old project acreage except this time its sans "Niobrara" that "prolific" oil producing interval in the DJ-Basin of which Pathfinder lies on the the very southern margin.

@bruutz82 -
(a) why does anyone who is invested in AKK care a hoot about what OPEC does or doesn't do. AKK is not a blue chip. That macro level event is for big oil producers and explorers of which AKK is neither.

(b) we've had that discussion multiple times. I've posted the pretty pictures using CURRENT DATA (please note) that  AKK provides in their presentation. Either you don't know about O&G well modelling, didn''t understand the picture or just wish to muddy the water.  Lets try again shall we:

P50 : 50% chance of at recovering (or exceeding) the EUR in the 10 yr period. This is the mid point expected case. I built a decline and cumulative production curve for this at EUR 58,605 BO and also at the high case which would have a 10% chance with EUR of 136,972

IP24 hr (P50) = 86 bopd .....  this gives you the 250 bopd number for 3 successful wells
IP24 hr (P10) = 200 bopd

alas but in 30 days
IP 30 (P50) = 80 bopd (this is the average over 30 days .... but at end of day on day 30 its ~75 bopd)
IP 30 (P10) = 187 bopd (this is the average over 30 days .... but at end of day on day 30 its ~175 bopd)

and in 90 days

IP 90 (P50) = 71 bopd (this is the average over 30 days .... but at end of day on day 90 its ~60 bopd)
IP 90 (P10) = 167 bopd (this is the average over 30 days .... but at end of day on day 30 its ~140 bopd)

I'm sure you can figure it out. Did the cash flow modelling too using current data and WTI at $50 if I recall.


Happy to see NEW DATA when it becomes available (along with caveats). The only way the sense of small company reporting is to understand the bigger picture data and correlate what their subset is.