For AVQ to have any longer term value it all hangs on getting Isabel back. Its positive they are going to drill San Jorge and try and get a resource together. With only $5M to spend and spending $1M on Admin, salaries, legal's etc, they will probably only have $2M to spend on drilling San Jorge. Axiom should get some form of resource at San Jorge for that amount of money. However, to be able to raise enough funds to go into production from San Jorge Axiom will need to complete a PFS and then a BFS, even on a direct shipment operation, otherwise they will not be able to raise the finance to put the project into operation. All that will take probably a year or more. Therefore, we come back to the same position and that is to get into production quickly Axiom need Isabel back. Some of you guys where saying that it was only going to take a few weeks for Axiom to get Isabel back and they would be in production in Sept or Oct (go and check the old posts). That was never going to happen (as a few of us pointed out and got shouted down) and that is now very clear. This project will develop like may others through a process of PFS, BFS, etc. It will be easier than many projects as its planned to be a DSO operation but it is still going to take time. If you run a NPV on the cash flows published for the operation at Isabel it will never support a share price of over $1. The cash flows are just not big enough and that is using AVQ's own numbers. What AVQ do a great job of is pumping up their price through putting ads in the papers about hiring people. Given where they are thats a good strategy and clearly RM talks a good story. You have to applaud them for that. Therefore, given the risk in the development of the project and the continued need for more cash to get through the PFS, BFS stage, every time they manage to spike the share price is a good time to take profit as longer term there is way move down side than upside.
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