I was running through the possibilities - news, a demand, a deal.
News?
"Here is your DFS" but there is no mention of the DFS
"We're walking away, selling up" - not likely based on their recent announcements.
"Project is in trouble due to some official/legal/political issue" - it is PNG so always a possibility
A demand?
"We've paid our fair share according to the deal so please contribute" - pretty sure it is a free carry until the DFS is final
"We like it so much we're ready to start. Now where is you $xyz million?" - but unlikely - even the big boys need to complete the DFS to keep the bankers happy
A deal?
"DFS is not finished but we're thinking it is a go and it will be too hard for you to fund your way , so here is a deal to take part of your share for a Ramu style free carry arrangement" Maybe, but I think they would prefer the lot.
So, absent a full takeover offer it left me thinking a buy out offer for the Freida stake is a possibility. But then again, the usual "possible significant transaction" language was missing.
I really don't know what to make of it.
If it is a buyout of the Freida stake, I don't think GRAM would be particularly generous. The timing is too opportunistic for a generous deal - get in before the market can assess the value revealed in the DFS. But then it couldn't be too tight fisted either - Trafigura and PNGSDP are unlikely to sign off on something too low ball. And I am sure there would be other interested parties if HIG had the time and opportunity to shop it around - OZL? Anglo?
Roll on Thursday - at last something (good bad or otherwise) is happening.
HIG Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
