1/ Great day on every front – potential for even complete bottoming
I think everyone knows that today was a great day but I just want to break down exactly how good it was IMO
a/ In an event of complete bottoming, it would be good to see a
complete washout with panic first. That has been met recently and especially yesterday
b/ After the panic, you’d want a
high volume huge rise – met today
c/ I specifically mentioned that SYR’s first priority should be
get over and close over 2.39. We did that very convincingly today and I don’t think it was a coincidence that we opened exactly at 2.4 which was also the low of the day, as bulls wanted to make a convincing statement
d/ I mentioned anything between 2.39 to 2.5 as key comfort/support level and while we should at least get over 2.39,
close over 2.5 is preferable. This too was done convincingly
e/ Positive rise despite potential for great negative setup -
Positive on every key front. I had mentioned this level as even a potential for complete bottoming in December, while also mentioning potential for some support as 2.64.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt-syr-ax.2791786/page-107?post_id=21076760
I had mentioned in December that I would be very surprised if we don’t see some strong support here, even if SYR is destined to go lower, and potential strong rise with maybe some resistance around 2.8 and then 3. We already had that rise after that, but
this time, the setup was far more negative.
We had fallen below critical level and there was strong potential for further falls but instead there was a huge rise, which should at least make every bull or bear give today’s trade a deep thought. In such an event, one must be open to the possibility of a bottoming. Just to clarify, I’m not saying that it is all over and it is going to soar from here, but just saying that this is the most bullish day I’ve seen in a long, long time, which definitely has the potential for yesterday to be the bottom.
2/ Shorters
I mentioned yesterday that
I’d really be surprised if Wednesday was not another one of those 0.5% red days (stock shorted more than 0.5%), because the timing of shorters IMO so far has been near to perfect.
Turns out that I was spot on as there were 2 million gross shorts yesterday – 0.77% of capital and also 36% of yesterday’s trading volume
http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=syr
As per chart, position is 13.42% and SYR is no.6
(Mar 10)
http://www.shortman.com.au/top
Just a note that I’ve often seen over the course of the last month of how shorters would be squeezed, crushed, etc. and IMO, shareholders are deluding themselves if they believed that.
IMO, the shorters were in complete control all along. I say that because I myself mentioned just on observing the shorts on Feb 28 crossing 0.5% that they had chosen the perfect day to cause panic, and again was pretty sure (and mentioned it) yesterday that it was going to be a day dominated by shorters (more than 0.5%). I also came back to comment after a 1 month break to comment on March 1 because I suspected “something” was happening.
Shorters were never ever squeezed but IMO had this setup in mind all along, and they executed it beautifully.
SYR’s best hope now is that they have covered yesterday and today. I don’t know if this happened and it might be good to check the chart over the coming days. Sadly, the chart is updated with a time lag, but gross shorts could give some indication
3/ Key levels
2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72
My key levels stand the same as I had mentioned. Even if SYR is destined to go up, at each stage, I believe that the hurdle still has to be crossed and today, we see that SYR stopped exactly at 2.65 (1 cent ahead of 2.64)
I have also marked 2.39 in red as I don’t think the open at 2.40 was entirely a coincidence
4/ Conclusion
As I’ve mentioned before, the drama of SYR is too much for me, but as I’ve mentioned above, one has to at least be open to the possibility of a bottoming of SYR. Once more, I’m not saying we’ve bottomed but just saying that based on all I mentioned above, as is evident, yes, a possibility of bottoming definitely exists and I’d already mentioned this in December itself, and this time, the setup seems even better based on today's trade (if and only if, the bulls can follow on from here).
Key levels that I’ve been mentioning since many months has more or less played along beautifully; so either way, whether SYR is going up or down, I believe we’ll get some hints and indications of bullish or bearish sentiment
SYR still needs to stay above 2.39 IMHO and preferably above 2.5 or the bulls could lose confidence again. This IMO is a very crucial point
The shorters SYR is dealing with are IMO not mums and dads but absolute experts at their game. If the bulls go slack again, the shorters will be back again.
A reminder one last time that I don’t know where it is going but just thought of expressing what I saw today and all IMHO. While my comment might sound bullish, I myself don't hold SYR and the road ahead depends on the bulls but the bulls have definitely sent a strong message today and it would be interesting if they can actually follow through all the resistance levels including some really tough ones ahead – 3, 3.45, 3.65 and so many more after that.
Good luck.
(20min delay)