Ann: Trading Halt-SYR.AX, page-137

Brief update from my last comment on March 31 (quoted comment) –

1/ Key levels

2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72

My comments are incomplete without a reminder of what I have been mentioning as key levels since the past half year and which have come true non-stop since the past half year.
3 most recent key levels since my last comment marked in red.

A quick look at the chart will show that we moved down towards 2.64 around April 5^th and 6^th before rising back up towards 2.8 over the subsequent days and banging its head against what then became resistance.

SYR came back down again and closed at 2.65 on April 11 but this time since the next level above had become resistance, SYR had nowhere to go but down and came down to test 2.5 over the next few days before finding some support at 2.5 on the last trading day of Thursday April 13.

2/March 16^th shorting and we are now below that level

I mentioned in my last comment that we should probably pay attention to the activity of March 16 and how heavy shorting on such a bullish day might indicate that shorters probably thought SYR was overvalued even at that level. SYR’s high was 2.65 that day and close was 2.57.

I appear to be right and our latest close of 2.52 and low of 2.47 now indicates that, and shorters now have a level below that March 16 bullish day

3/ Massive shorts

I mentioned to keep an eye on the short chart and holders probably might not want to see it.
Short position reached 16.8% on March 31 (day of my last comment - chart was updated several days later.)
http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=syr
http://www.shortman.com.au/top

Also latest position of 16.04% and SYR is no.3 on most shorted list and just 0.07% away from no. 2

This obviously should be an area of concern. I’ve pointed time and again that IMO, the shorters have never been troubled in the slightest and rising shorts which have never declined confirm that

4/ Importance of 2.5 level

I’ve mentioned "2.39/2.44/2.5" since almost 5 months and that has finally played along. I won’t repeat all that because I’ve mentioned all that in my last few comments and that has played along almost perfectly as anticipated.
If I have to make a small change it would be to the bottoming level.

I mentioned 2.39 as the bottom level but the Ides of March massacre day of March 15 where SYR had a low of 2.24 and 2.34 has slightly messed up what I thought as key levels, and I’m a bit unsure as to how much SYR can go down again and get support. So this must be taken into consideration.

I did mention on March 15 that though we’ve smashed through support, SYR could still find support and we are just barely hanging by a thread, which did indeed happen 1 day later.

It is important to note now that SYR has more or less tested this level 3 times in long run – Dec 2014, Oct 2015 and recently, with a triple bottom.
SYR has also somewhat tested this level 3 times in recent past - Dec, March and now – triple bottom

If the bulls can come to the party, this really has the potential to be a powerful long term support. Alternatively, we could end up having an absolute bloodbath if the levels are snapped through as long term and medium term support would have been snapped.

5/ Concerns expressed in last comment

2 comments back I passed what was probably my most bullish comment on SYR ever but warned about the AUD 3 level resistance – worked out perfectly and SYR had a powerful rise till that level.

In last comment, I changed my tone and expressed concern about rising shorts. Price was 2.83 and we’ve not had a single close above that since then; so my concerns were again valid, and we've slipped even further.

6/ Conclusion

We are back to the critical zone again and my past comments were valid again.

As I mentioned though, if SYR had to find some support below, the key level is slightly more tricky to work out.

Ideally... above 2.5 – slightly more comfortable
2.39 to 2.5 – high alert zone
2.24 to 2.39 – really very risky, and a gamble
Below 2.24- potential start of bloodbath, if we don't see a quick rise like we saw on March 15-16

The logic is easy to understand if you see my earlier comments. As I mentioned though, it is hard to work out an acceptable bottom due to the chaos of March 15. Hopefully, it does not come to this. As I’ve mentioned in past comments, bulls would ideally want SYR above 2.39 and preferably above 2.5. So either way, bulls need to come to the party sooner or later if SYR has to rise.

IMO, one would be wise to continue to keep an eye on shorters’ activity at all time as it gives useful clues at all times. Shorters have never backed down and this should be a real worry, and especially if they are planning to take on support levels again.


Recent activity is further proof of what I've said all along - that IMHO, I've never found the reward of SYR commensurate with the risk and drama involved. Hopefully, you guys see once more what I've been talking about all along.

Good luck and happy Easter. Cheers