Hi Guys, I am Resourcebull, and I am extremely confused.
I've read so many prevailing theories today, some of which mirrored my own, and others which got me thinking.
Ya made an interesting point about Centrals cash position being $33.427m and the cost (Centrals commitment) being $9.741m. If Ya's figures are correct, and I suspect/believe they are, then Central is funded for the stage two campaign targeting Oil, Gas and Helium. Seismic reports which JH himself assured me were imminent (weeks ago) must have already been paid for, and if they weren't I would presume they will not cost us the rest of our kitty.
Taking that into consideration, I also raise another point in conjunction with Ya. The point of the last capital raising, during which time the CTPOs were issued along with the FPO capital, was to finance stage one, which at the time ALSO included Ooraminna 2. So at the very least, if we assume that Johnstonne1 and Maggee2 are unaffordable with the remaining cash in our account, would it not be wiser to conduct those drills (which we have apparently good information on alluding proving of resource rather than pure discovery as a result of "previously flowed gas to surface") and raise the share price, and then do another raising?
It makes little sense. We have already funded this campaign to some extent, and moreover JH argued previously that with solid findings in Phase Two, there was every possibility and hope that the CTPOAs would make their way into the money and exercising of these would add another $30m (approximately) to our cash balance. Furthermore, the availability of rolling convertible bonds would cover any fiduciary shortfall from a hard-ball-playing BG not paying when they are supposed to. This would plug holes for payment to drilling contractors or seismic conductors. Again this leave us looking for an answer. Why are we allocating?
I then asked myself, if there was the possibility (like many are describing here) that a "Major" was interested in acquiring a part of the company. Whether that be Santos, BHP, BG, Mobil Exxon, ANZ, Camdenbob or anybody else, it would be fantastic for the company. It would explain this very strange situation moreso than simply wanting more money that we already apparently have? I would also throw in there, the argument of acquiring some acreage (be that in the Cooper Basin or some from ROG) which is somewhat understandable, though I find myself completely disagreeing with it.
We do not need these acreages, because the argument for acquiring them is purely from a perspective of fast-tracking cash-flow. But isnt that the point of phase two? Looking for "previously flowing helium and oil"? If we locate these, like we believe we can, wouldn't we be monetising THOSE rather than acquiring others? I realise the key in that particular argument lies with infrastructure, however I would protest that given a major find in helium, oil or gas, and the subsequent time required to get those into commercial reality, the SP would go ballistic anyway, and capital raising could be conducted THEN. Moreover, we would have major's beating down our demountable office doors in the NT begging for a piece of the action or indeed the whole thing.
Which is why I am confused.
Out of all the options discussed, I would put my vote firmly in the position of hoping beyond hope that a major is involved and this raising is simply to offer a more attractive package to an investor beyond simply acquiring on-market. Wishful thinking? Perhaps.
Friday can't come soon enough! I have faith in JH. I hope that (as much as my money) is well invested. I have held stock since 2005 and I have ridden the highs and lows! Time for another high boys! Lets bring it home.
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