Ann: Trading Halt, page-23

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nevcop

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29/04/15

00:19

Post #: 15176073
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Originally posted by speculator101 ↑

You would not credit it... I started this post about 5 hours ago, but since then had to get the kids etc ready for bed. Hmph. I was reading things right, but should have followed through with my conviction regarding a cap raise and sold last week. Ah well. I am slowly learning.
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Just going over the debt facility and TRY has to pay $20 million back on the 30th of June.
With the current quarter all about finishing the Karouni project, I have a niggling suspicion that their cash position is tighter than it looks.

Here's how I see it.

$10 million must be held in cash at all times due to the debt facility.
By my estimation, they will spend at least $10-15 million this quarter on the Karouni project

Tbe debt facility is fully drawn at $100 million.
Net debt at 30th March was $54.1 million.
$20 million debt payment in June 30th
TRY made $3.5 million this quarter. Lets just go with a prediction again for this quarter.

100-10-10/15-54.1-20= $5.9/0.9.
This leaves them with (at the low end of my guess) with only $5.9 million in cash. Or at the high end, $0.9 million at June 30th.
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So there it is, the simple reason TRY needs a cap raising. The main positive, is it will give TRY and sound position cash wise, BUT... dilution now.. Has been handled badly. They should have done this raising months ago when the SP was stronger.

Arg. For what its worth. I do think TRY/BDR should merge. TRY could manage BDR a hell of a lot better, and it would cut down a hell of a lot of Admin etc. Plus they would be a 3 mine company, in 3 different countries, so a much more reduced country risk profile. In fact, if they did an even split at the current prices, I would be much happier to hold both. All IMHO.

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So if they raise $35M @ 40c and spend $10m this quarter, that leaves $25M less net debt=$30M Net debt.
At 44c share price would be $130 Market cap, at 40c about $115 MC.
Given they are projecting earnings of $60M USD per annum, (AISC $900 x 200k ounces, with GP $1200) that's $76M AUD, or a forward P/E of about 1.5 at share price 40c
Still looks cheap....why is everyone thinking a drop lower than 40c, when the placement will be at that figure?

TRY Price at posting: 44.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Trading Halt, page-23

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