Using the comparable deals and their structure, we forecast that trofinetide for Rett and Fragile X and including provision for potential other indications can get licensed for a total deal package of US$680m, including US$50m in upfront payment in CY2H17. We also expect tiered double digit royalties could be part of the deal ranging from 15%-25%. For conservatism sake, we model a flat rate of 15% now.
While we believe US$680m is a reasonable assumption for the dollar value trofinetide may fetch, we note that our assumptions could be conservative given the high value of some of the region specific deals and the likelihood that follow on compound NNZ-2591 is likely to be part of a deal.
Bell Potter weren't holding back in predicting a deal in the second half of this year.
IMO positive results will start a flurry of activity to secure the medicine. It's such uncharted territory to reverse the effects of a neurological condition, so to receive confirmatory results will be enough for big Pharma to pounce.
Bell states that their estimation of a $680m deal is conservative. Too right it is, and this could all well be happening over the next few months regardless of where we are with breakthrough, fast track or development stage.
Exciting times and fingers remain intensely crossed.
NEU Price at posting:
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