I am not assuming anything other than the conservative position:...

I am not assuming anything other than the conservative position:
- @anf0 Yes dilutive for equity and less returns for money invested. My preliminary calcs is that the post-tax geared NPV goes from US$147m to US$111m. 10% discount rate is clearly not the right way to look at this given the sovereign risk but the post-tax geared IRR goes from 26% to 23%
- @mr_delta I am assuming it will be with the 4% royalty and the 16% free carry equity interest
- @sharemadder it will affect FDI. But for KNL, they have no option but to push through otherwise KNL will be worthless. The shareholders will evaluate but focussing on the project itself, the only things that matter are customers and financing (debt and equity). Customer contracts usually have a condition-precedent for completion. Also they don't need to care about mining law changes as it is the risk of KNL and they are not on the hook until the project is funded and developed. Debt financing is key - if there is debt financing, equity financing will come (at a cost). All I am saying is that KNL will push KfW on the financing and at the end of the day, KfW will have set of risk parameters allocated for Tanzania to evaluate the asset. There will be delays and terms will be worse but the asset itself will still be the same. If the asset is viable and the debt servicing metrics are ok at the higher rates, there will still be financing. Yes I agree Magufuli won't stop here - it is a reminder we are collateral damage and not the target. He does move from sector to sector though.