MVL 28.6% 0.9¢ marvel gold limited

Management don't publish research on themselves, 3 brokers have...

  1. 236 Posts.
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    Management don't publish research on themselves, 3 brokers have published research.

    It wasn't hard to work out from the March Quarterly that some working capital for GPX would be required in Q3, regardless of what happened with the deal at project level:

    Cash at end of March Quarter = $1.9m - Q2 cash (say $973k, same as in Q1) = ~$0.9m at start of Q3.

    I was hoping the raising could have been done after the agreements signed but wasn't to be thanks to the Tanzanian hiccup.

    Your prediction of the hiccup delaying progress for a year doesn't make sense. What's changed? China is obviously keen to keep things moving, and Tanz gets a 16% stake in the project at some point down the track. The agreements can go ahead as per the original terms ie 50:50, and if/when the Tz policy details get finalised, the project owners (GPX and China) simply issue Tz with 16% shares in the project.

    China has a lot of sway in Tz. It wouldn't surprise me if they're able to put some pressure on Tz to give us more favourable terms than 16%, at the very least provide some certainty around what the arrangements are for the life of the project. I suspect this is the purpose of the Chinese heading to Tz in the next few weeks, to look the President / Vice President in the eye and say: "WTF? We've been looking after you, let's be sensible and get this project on the road."

    Another bargaining chip is to offer Tz more downstream processing in-country, which was one of the things Tz are looking to maximise. This could add significant value to GPX as any downstream processing facilities is likely to be done through the same Chilalo JV vehicle.

    I've heard that Tz have frozen all new mining licence applications. This also pushes GPX further to the head of the queue. Only 3 Tz graphite companies have MLs:

    > MNS, but they won't have offtake until their battery giga factories are built - 5yrs? 10yrs? - which is needed before project finance can be finalised.

    > KNL has some offtake but I doubt very much if the German financiers they've been courting will proceed, they've baulked at it for 12-18 months, and that was BEFORE the Tz hiccup.

    > Which leaves lil 'ol GPX poised to be the first exporter of that good quality black stuff from Tanzania. And could also fulfill the offtakes that KNL have (no doubt this would be in the back of mind of the German financiers), and perhaps we send a few samples to the giga factory owners that MNS are dreaming about supplying...would you sign a $300m cheque to build the MNS project?
 
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