Ann: Trading Halt, page-332

Lobbing missiles around to fall in Japanese waters is pretty dangerous practice given the inaccuracies that are common to ballistic missiles. If one strays off course it could well be grounds for a pre-emptive strike by USA, as China will only get involved if the USA acts unilaterally. As the next launch will probably be a high altitude nuclear test it may well be taken out before launch by a combination of USA, China and Russia.

Several past wars have started over something as simple as a family squabble or a cultural misunderstanding or men itching to test their toys.

The USA has now had sufficient time to restock the type of neutron warheads they had in 1996 needed to incapacitate the N Korean troops before they have a chance to fire their weapons at Seoul, while simultaneously using conventional bombs, possibly with thermonuclear follow up but more likely special forces to take out the nuclear missile sites and deep shelters. Neutron bombs emit high prompt radiation with high energy - a burst of about 30Gy, given poor diets and health would immediately incapacitate the troops. Dispersal of neutron radiation is rapid, the effect in climate is minimised and this would also leave the infrastructure intact.

No-one seems to want to be able to comprehend a nuclear war, everyone is in denial. But I can see it happening.

Interesting that markets are ignoring it. Markets only worry about uncertainty. In the past markets have bottomed during wars once the result is known, eg 1917 and 1942. Thats why in 2003 it bottomed on Mar 6th once the war finally started as the result was a pre-gone conclusion. It is hard to see the big 3 powers fighting a nuclear war deliberately given it would threaten human existence. But if N Korea does not come to heel, it will be on its own having alienated everyone. Bad for N Koreans, but not going to damage markets for long I guess.

Anyway AJX is in a good position to capture business from a build up in anticipation! Have a good weekend.