@50 cents they'd have a diluted market cap of about $1.3b. Which, is definitely possible, but it's a decent ways away and we'd have to have a lot of good things happen between now and then.
Assuming a revenue multiple of 20 can be applied... Netflix is currently trading at just under 40, however that's due to the huge spike recently. Prior to the spike they were at 28 or 29. Technology one is currently at 20x revenues with much higher net margin of 22.9% vs. Netflix's 5.7%. So low 20s might be appropriate. This massive assumption and a highly simplistic approach, but what the heck - just a bit of fun.
That means, $1.3b/20 = $65m a year needed
I believe most here are operating on the loose assumption of $4/month per subscriber? I'm not entirely sure how that number was derived but it just
feels really high to me.
But at $4 -- that means we'd need 1.35m monthly subscribers to get us there.
Here's a little 'what-if' table. How many subscribers are needed to achieve a market cap of $1.3b? Revenue multiples across the top, and $$$ per subscriber down the left side, number of subscribers in the middle:
Number of Subscribers required to achieve MC of $1.3b or 50c/share diluted:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
| 1 |
|
|
Revenue Multiple |
|
|
|
| 2 |
|
10 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
30 |
| 3 |
0.50 |
21,666,667 |
14,444,444 |
10,833,333 |
8,666,667 |
7,222,222 |
| 4 |
1.00 |
10,833,333 |
7,222,222 |
5,416,667 |
4,333,333 |
3,611,111 |
| 5 |
2.00 |
5,416,667 |
3,611,111 |
2,708,333 |
2,166,667 |
1,805,556 |
| 6 |
3.00 |
3,611,111 |
2,407,407 |
1,805,556 |
1,444,444 |
1,203,704 |
| 7 |
4.00 |
2,708,333 |
1,805,556 |
1,354,167 |
1,083,333 |
902,778 |
