AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

I can understand your viewpoint that it's prudent to do a CR...

  1. 331 Posts.
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    I can understand your viewpoint that it's prudent to do a CR now. Strike while the iron is hot and mitigate the risk of future CR at lower future SP due to potential market volatility in order to keep the operation going for 2018. However, imo it's not in the company's and everyone best interests to do the CR you referred to in your post. Here is why I think so.

    From the CF perspective, per your post, we will still have approx $6.75/$7m left after Q1 2018. Assuming Q2 will cost $7m (for the remaining 20,000m drilling program) and $8m the 2nd half of 2018. This means we need to raise an additional $8mil to see us through 2018, but not until Q3/Q4 2018. By then, the first 20km drilling program would have been completed and JORC is available. You mentioned that the results may have been baked into the current SP, but I don't think so. There is a big difference between inferred resource (now) and measured resource (after JORC). As it is now, there is a risk premium/discount built into the current SP. Once JORC is available and confirms expectation, the SP will move much higher. Otherwise, why waist money and effort to do JORC.

    Many will say there is a risk that JORC will not meet expectation and the SP will tank. Until JORC is available, this is a real risk. However, but I think the probability of this happening is low because: a) various analysis from @Scarpa on the "homogenous" of Roche Dure, b) Hole 1/2018 point to this homogenous and c) the announcement on 23-Oct which states: "The distribution of lithium grades follows a Normal Distribution,confirming that the Roche Dure Pegmatite is essentially homogenous. The high degree of homogeneity may permit a wider spacing of drill-holes to define a Mineral Resource and thus potentially reduce the lead-time from drilling to Resource Estimation."

    I also think that the impact of lower than expected JORC would be medium/low because the $8m needed for 2H 2018 can potentially be covered from HuaYou options conversion or via retail offer which many of us would subscribe to. If I am Huayou, I will convert my options to avoid dilution and give me more power.

    So given the low probability and medium impact of the risk of not doing the CR you mentioned now, I would just accept the risk if I am managment.
 
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