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Surandy70

11,119 Posts.

1863

17/04/19

23:17

Post #: 38190410
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Originally posted by HairyRichard: ↑

Some rough calcs on how much we need to raise... mostly for my own knowledge but im gonna post it for others to look at (or pick at if they think im wrong. HAPPY TO BE CORRECTED GUYS! Let me hear my mistakes)

$2m in the bank 1st of Jan
- $1.5m outflows expected Q1 ... Leaves $500k in the bank as of 2 weeks ago.
Received $300k in the bank from Frozen Penguin (with another $300k coming this Q-ish) ... $800-$1100k in the bank
$200k from The Grove ... $1m-1.3m in the bank
$300k from Polaris and other Frozen penguin order... $1.3-1.6m
$1.3m coming soon from Miracle Valley. Currently being fit-out.... $2.9m in the bank when this is done
Lets assume Q2 costs us around the same as Q1 = $1.5m
Leaves us with $1.4m in the bank at a BEST CASE scenario. This is not likely to happen as the revenue from GFS isn't profit.
Will be more like $1m-1.2m IMO in the bank or even less at the end of Q2 and that's only if MV have paid.
If MV haven't paid our likely cash position (if we didn't raise) would be around $0-300k.

By the time MV has paid, Gibio will be just about ready to order their units I imagine. I'm unsure what these custom-made 8" units will sell for. I will guess ~$17500 each with a 50% margin. Margin is a total guess. Price is a half guess/half estimate.
420 8" machines = ~$7.3m
Assuming a 50% deposit paid before delivery (same as the Frozen Penguin deposit) = $6.5m in the bank.
We burn $4.5m of that money building the machines and paying people to work... $2m in the bank

We now receive the first 100 4" unit order from Freshero (Announced 24/8/18) for $1m-1.5m CAD
Assume another 50% deposit for $750k.... $2.7m in the bank

We receive the rest of the 50% from Gibio... $6.4m in the bank

We receive the rest of the 50% from Freshero... $7.1m in the bank

By this point we're probably in November or December and have started to fit out our first 10,000sq ft (or even have completed it. First harvest due Q1 2020)
Cost to build out 10,000sq ft (at our cost prices!)... Let's say $3m (Investor pres 24/7/18 says $5m per 10,000 but we get it without a markup on it)

It's now March 2020:
We should be cashflow positive with 36,000 lettuce's coming out of Gibio every day, god knows what coming out of Freshero but we have a ~5% royalty on whatever it is and we're selling cannabis.

There's also Amfil who want 100 units at some point and have paid a deposit (The deposit figures allude me here) and hopefully a stream of work going through GFS.
We also owe Valens some $$ but I forget how much and there's talk of listing on the CSE. Both of these together could add up to a couple of million.

I said it before and I'll say it again, it was always going to be tight for RGI. The timing of the $1.3m from Miracle Valley and a deposit from Gibio would have been the deciding factor but we'd be cutting it way too close.
I think we might just maybe get away with a $1m capital raise, but I wouldn't object to a $2m raise for some safety. All the figures "in the bank" have been calculated without including any raise money.

I'm sure I've made some mistakes here. I should have gone to bed but I decided to stay up and write up this essay instead. Feel free to correct me. If this post is just way off the mark I'll get it deleted by the mods.
I'm going to bed...

Expand

Thanks for your efforts, saved me doing my own research and having to collate all the figures myself.

"Cost to build out 10,000sq ft (at our cost prices!)... Let's say $3m (Investor pres 24/7/18 says $5m per 10,000 but we get it without a markup on it)"

With the approvals in place already and approvals still required could RGI fast track this build out so it is operational earlier than the Q4 timeframe previously quoted by the company?

I reckon with this capital raising we could do this and possibly have some change for working capital. Brings forward RGI becoming self sufficient.

RGI Price at posting: 24.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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