I very much agree the speculation from experienced investors is telling. Nevertheless, assuming that $2.5 was roughly fair value for a 50,000 ounce per quarter production rate, then a discount of 36% could be pricing in a rough -18,000 ounce print on production (assuming no major, terminal issues with the orebody). It is very hard to say what even a slight miss on production will do for investor sentiment. I speculate it all depends on the reason for the miss, whether it be grade, accessibility, etc. It could even be they hit production guidance but raise AISC from $1,050-$1,150/oz to $1,250. We don't know how severe it could be. Price sensitive can be a 2,000 ounce miss on guidance as much as it can be a 20,000 ounce miss on guidance.
