I've been here all along but just waiting and reading from the sideline. There was too much hot air here for a while.
I've also been trading this a little to reduce my carry cost. But overall I really like what I'm seeing here. This CR was unexpected so soon after the last $5m. Still it really signals that finance is probably a little way off so it's smart to buy time. I'm going to be watching for the level of interest in this CR. Oversubscribed CR means this Co is alive and well and it's just a matter of time.
This was always going to be tough. I myself was a bit naive early on in thinking that the SKI deal was going to get done. It was a too good to be true scenario. Most likely also not in the best interest of AUZ and the shareholders. At the time also I thought that the overall market was not right. AUZ is approx 2 years from production and this now actually nicely coincides with what I'm seeing right across the battery Chem supply chain.
My UBS research (which I've reread recently) is actually bang on money and time. 2022 is crunch time and if you look at the backorder book that SKI have and then take 2-3 years off that timeline and work backwards you arrive at almost right here and now. So IMO there is too much coincidence for this to mean nothing. IMO it will all happen in the next 6 months. Any later than that will disrupt the global supply chain - VW and Tesla are already suffering from not being able to make enough batteries. Now imagine 10 times the demand. And that is just the start.
Plus we also have won the lottery a bit with the Fed elections. QLD is still starved for jobs and the recent weaknesses in battery Chem supply chain at 2.1% EV market share have demonstrated just how fragile the market is. These all bode well for AUZ but it needs to keep alive until a strategic partner or partners can be secured. This CR is just a buy a bit more time move and is a smart thing to have done.
We need to complete the v2 BFS and prove we have enough resources. By my calcs we have plenty now.
@rusty02 can probably give a more precise answer.
We then need funding. A good BFSv2 leads to finance leads to a strategic partner leads to NAÏF. Well maybe NAÏF first and then a partner but in any effect the QLD premier would not be talking it up if it weren't real. That would political suicide and I believe The Hon Anastasia Palaszczuk is much more astute that that.
So there you have it. The case for AUZ is laid out. I get there is a whole lot of risk on the table - but is there really? Who in their right mind would walk away from a low risk, clean supply of critical battery elements when you have a 21 year backlog and the Chinese already control most of the supply chain.
Nah - this is already done. we just don't know the details yet. In time this will be a $4-5-8 stock. In time. Mind you they will probably consolidate 10:1 at some stage as the register is looking a bit scrappy.
All in my opinion and GLTAH
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