"They value ce1 asset at $242 mill, with 50 Mmcf/d and 2,500 bbl/d If liquids to be delivered to market by 2020".
Let me guess.
50Mmcfd = 8,333 boepd
2,500 Bbls liquids = 2,500 boepd
Total production = 10,833 boepd
Multiplied by $20,000 per producing boepd (used by many for Montney valuation, e.g. Cormack Securities) = $217M
Plus associated infrastructure (gas gathering lines etc) = $16M
Plus whatever else (i.e. undeveloped land) of $10M
Total "EV" = $243M (assuming no debt). With a 9cps valuation that suggests either
2,700,000,000 shares issued
OR
2,155,572,912 issued at 9cps = $193M and debt of $50M (which is noted in AGM presentation of conceptual dev slide 12).
Fine. Stop talking about it (and stop highlighting debt free), go get $50M in debt and start the conceptual field development program and create the shareholder value you keep talking about!
Just for perspective considering PONY is often referenced.
2019 guidance for production = 55,000 boepd
Using same $20,000 per flowing boe puts EV = $1,100M
Everything else (pipelines, gas plants, and over 100,000+ undeveloped acres) all for free!!!
PONY carries just shy of $330M of drawn debt
Therefore if the EV = $1,100M then the value of the Equity must be ~$770M
PONY current market value is just shy of $150M
Petra is going to have a whole lot of shares to distribute ... I want to believe 9cps ... but data tells me a different story.
Don't need a grain of salt. Need a truck load of it.
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