If it was conceived 2 years ago it goes down as poor timimg! 4...

If it was conceived 2 years ago it goes down as poor timimg! 4 years ago it may have been the right plan.



From 2017 onwards there is a pretty pronounced downtrend that even I as a self confessed non-chartist can see.

When was CE1 as a Montney play PUBLICLY birthed - July 2017 so right on 2 years ago. Would have been in discussion long before that (or you would hope so). As I look at it, been in downtrend since beginning 2017 (at least). They took a chance on a opportunity and got it "wrong". Won't fault them for that. Nothing wrong with Montney per se. I'll take the Montney every day over say the Bakken or Niobrara ... but that's me.

So what should they have done? They could certainly have deferred drilling the appraisal wells ... but what does that do for their credibility. The decision in May'18 to go all in probably looked pretty smart as the trend appears to have reversed mid 2018. Alas it resumed the downtrend in late Q3 and has gone further down ever since. Once they raised the capital and put the firm plan for 2018 drilling they were more like the pig than the chicken in the breakfast meal. They were committed to the Montney not just involved.

But they did get the cost, execution and deliverables wrong in Phase 1. And that's why we are where we are. PONY has their plan. Saguaro has their plan. 7Gen has their plan. Crew has their plan. The Montney isn't being shuttered. The strongest players will survive (mind you its been a long wait for PONY to get back its former glory built of the LNG export dreams of 2012-14 timeframe).

@sucker the question you should ask then is how can "Petra have retained their buy recommendation and have a price target of 9 cents" if "implied valuations have collapsed" as clearly Petra is using aggressive valuation metrics.

@Larkin we can only hope a good soaking boosts our IPs and CGR to break away from the Saguaro analogue.

Commodity price increases will help more than ever if CE1 seriously harbors plans to be a producer.