Spiney, just scratching a little bit deeper here - PMO refers to ">1 bn bbls STOIIP" on the second page above, and depict the "Middle Stellar geobody" on the image on the first page above. DW released an update (based on inversion processing) in October last year (the kick-off of formal FO) that focused on this geobody (
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-conventional-portfolio-update.4500969/).
In that presentation, the gross mean unrisked resource for the entire Western Fairway....which I now read, rightly or wrongly, as being 'Area A', is estimated at 2,400 mmbbls. The specific Mid Stellar (historical discovery) is estimated at 292 mm bbls, while a stacked Stellar/Heavenly Torok Fan Play (prospect/discovery) is estimated at 639 mm bbls.
No doubt we will find out in due course with a more detailed Investor Presentation from our board, but I am intrigued as to what other prospects we will test in the proposed drill to take us from 292 mmbbls, though 639 mm bbls and on to in excess of 1,000 mm bbls. And they are referring to recoverable resource with STOIIP, not generic OIP which also includes unrecoverable.
Page 12 of the September 2018 Investor Presentation (with numbers that were adjusted soon after with seismic inversion processing results), appears to canvass the candidates to be potentially tested in a single well.
Will it be Bravo/Lima Seabee Fan Play depicted as 526 mm bbls (and revised to 536 mm bbls a month later), or will it be the Victor/Indigo/Charlie Topset Play depicted here as 554 mm bbls, but massively upsized to 912 mm bbls with the later invesrsion processing. The naming of the well as "Charlie" may be the indicator here, and it begs the question as to what is the actual STOIIP being tested by the mooted well. The primary target is clearly the Torok Fan Play at 9,200 ft (minimum) TVD. Adding either the Topset play or the Seabee fan play takes us to the "over 1 bn bbls" number. Well over actually. And if all three are 'testable', the target is over 2bn bbls.
So, with the cold light of day, this deal is looking better and better to me. We, the JV partners, have got a free carry (up to US$23m cap) to test between 1 bn and 2 bn bbls of resource and a retention of 30% to the company (40% to the JV). Upon success, we have a free carry (up to US$15m) for a subsequent fairway, if PMO takes up the option, to test 1 or 2 fairways ranging from 373 mm bbls for Area B and 124 mm bbls for Area C. And retaining 50% of those resources between 88e/Bex.
I guess we will know more when the details of the winter programme are finally divulged.....but I think the breadcrumbs to date give us a good inkling. It sounds good to me.
All IMO.
(20min delay)