Whilst I'm obviously pleased that this approval has finally come...

Whilst I'm obviously pleased that this approval has finally come through, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of this approval is already baked into the share price. Li is clearly in a bearish part of the cycle. Is it possible that MLL's SP would be even worse were it not for the expectation of the Mali Government eventually issuing a mining licence to MLL? The overarching market condition is proving to be one heck of a confounding factor here.

Looking at the bigger picture, I see a macro factor and a micro factor here. The macros relate to Li's role in transportation. In my uneducated opinion, Li in the late 2010s is in a similar position to oil in the first two decades of the 20th century. Nascent demand for horseless carriages appeared commensurate with the price of oil; especially around the turn of the century, and again in the late 10s-early 20s. Looking at the chart¹, and the subsequent fall and plateau of POO in the 20s, it seems as though supply for fuel overshot demand for cars. I believe this is similar to where we are today, only with Li and EVs respectively.

The micro factor relates to competitive advantage among producers. MLL's competitive advantages are well understood by us, if not the broader market and potential MLL customers, by now viz. cost, quality, good terms with local authorities etc.

Using motor vehicles as a proxy for oil, Wikipedia (yeah, I know) claims there were over 500 automotive companies in 1910 but by the time of the Great Depression of 1929 only 60 had survived, and twelve years later there were fewer than 20. The numbers seem a bit off, but the point is that the survivors were the companies that had some sort of competitive advantage and/or were big enough to buy out the weaker players whose underlying assets were sound.

It's quite possible that out of the hundreds (thousands?) of Li producers and explorers out there, this number will substantially contract over the next 10-20 years as smaller companies hit the wall and larger companies become larger through hoovering up distressed companies with quality assets, along with exploration to keep the Li taps open when their current resources start to run out.

For what it's worth, I see MLL's price peaking around 0.20 before settling down to circa 0.15 by the end of the first trading day after the halt. Next catalyst: offtake agreement. Who knows when (and how much) that will be; although what I do know is that this (and subsequent announcements) may be amplified in the opposite direction to which the broader Li market is heading at the time. The SP is not going to be at this level forever, but I'm fully expecting to wait for at least another 5 years before seeing MLL's true value - either in its own right, or as the result of a TO where MLL's holders are well compensated for their patience and foresight.

I dunno if I have much foresight, but I continue to have patience.

GLTAH

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¹ http://chartsbin.com/view/oau