Ann: Trading Halt, page-27

After looking at the coal prices again for the last 12 months, I suspect they were getting 105/T for H1, and 80/T for H2. Current coal prices are now 65/T.

On Cash costs of about 50/T, we've lost 30% margin cf H2 already, so the EBITDA for H1 this year is more likely 161mil if we again produce 6.4mil T.

so annualised ebitda of 322mil and EV/EBITDA of 7 with NAC, or 200mil (11.5x multiple) for Bengalla alone. I'd also assume they pay off at least 100mil debt over the next 12 months too so you could easily bring the forward EV down to 2.2 mil.

I'm not sure what value to give to North Surat and Burton. Any thoughts?

Over the past decade the coal price has only dropped below 65/T for 2/10 years, so we must be near the bottom especially with reduced investment from the majors over the last 5 years.

If you start putting in assumptions of coal price at 100/T, NAC 3 being approved, Burton producing etc, then the multiple starts going back to 3-4x.