I suspect NAC will produce another 3-4MT next year. What do others think?
Struggling for time to work through this at the moment. Page 19 0f the slide presentation stated (re New Acland mine):
"Production levels for 2020 are expected to be around 60% of 2019 levels in the absence of Stage 3 approvals".
So 60% of 4.1Mt = 2.46Mt for Queensland and I agree with 8Mt for NSW. For the purpose of conservative forward thinking I wouldn't consider New Acland Stage 3 for the coming year. So all we have to do is work out a probable coal price and what further efficiencies can be made out of Bengalla and we've got next year's profit worked out. Although there's a trailing tax effective yield nearing 10% and a P/E ratio of 10 I feel that I need that to justify the doubts surrounding the future given that coal is being disrupted and demand is falling each year as pressure is applied. Having said that, if coal prices move the way we'd like them to, there's a chance of solid upside for the stock price. Approval for New Acland Stage 3 wouldn't hurt either and both of these things are possible. I'm happy to hold and even a little bit hopeful despite the caution.
NHC Price at posting:
$2.52 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)