As you guys have stated there are a few scenarios. The result can be any or multiple combination of these. In all cases IMEC extension is likely to proceed.
a). Lot 4 Successful > 2. If they are ready to move to Mbit chip, we need more time with iMec
b) Lot 4 Successful but require another iteration for optimisation or QA (Lot 5 variation) IMO this is the most likely scenario since you want to continue with more rigorous QA testing or make further improvements. Lot 4 success means that you can now start attracting potential investors
> 1. If they need more wafers/lot 5 then we need more time with iMec.
c) Lot 4 has issues which require a full iteration > 1. If they need more wafers/lot 5 then we need more time with iMec.
d) 4DS are in discussion with HGST/WD on how to move forward with current findings (irrespective of Lot 4 results) This is less probable than the other scenarios above given that the timing of the TH. However R&D may have advanced to a stage where HGST can expedite things more quickly given that Panasonic/Fujitsu have announced that they are going into production with an 8GB ReRam chip.
e) 4DS has been approached by a potential investor
If there is an inkling of success with Lot 4 , then SP re-rate - here we come!
4DS Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
