Ann: Trading Halt, page-263

Harymeso.
I have been maintaining radio silence whilst I have been building up my own shareholding . I added my last 15,000 shares today. I was originally concerned that Capital might dump their remaining holding but I have been reassured that they have been bid for their remaining holding and have not responded to the opportunity to sell. I am also assured that there is no sign of further selling on the share register... but that is just hearsay.
Near term, I still read them as a potential seller but we are in a sort of “Mexican standoff” where the price is capped and buyer and sellers have reached a stalemate. I do not see this resolving itself until another price sensitive announcement swings the pendulum decisively one way or the other . I cannot believe I got the opportunity to sneak in and by a few hundred thousand at a big discount to the recent placing.

Re PAR I do not want to get drawn into a slanging match between threads. I note that two directors have just purchased a meaningful number of shares personally so they must be excited about their own prospects. They have secured a “use” patent for an old treatment therapy. I have not doubt that this works on low grade pain as it acts as a nerve growth inhibitor but I do not believe it improves function or restores/hydrated surrounding tissue. As there is no particular alternative out there right now they should do fine . When people understand what Mesoblast can do to treat the same condition, they will be even more impressed ...in my opinion of course. I should add that Mesoblast is unlikely to prioritise this treatment condition in the near future... the focus is currently on establishing the correct pricing formula for their other phase three therapies.
I will write a much longer piece shortly about Mesoblasts prospects. I think the Grunenthal deal has shown other major players what is possible ....put up a relatively modest up front now and reap the potential huge rewards of a successful phase three trial... and steal a match on all your competitors . I think the message will resonate and I would not be surprised if someone jumps the gun and pays a large upfront ( $150-200m?) in Cal Q1 before the trial results are known . Meanwhile I note that Bell Potter has speculated that the Company will want to refinance its debt following a successful fundraising . I also note that Edison Research have published a note in October which substantially upgraded the value of aGVHD compared to Bell Potters outlook.
I think that Mesoblast is getting ready to finish off the “data scrub” for its BLA application which should be lodged towards the end of December . By now they should have had final feedback from the FDA and I am very optimistic of a successful outcome. As a new therapy we should be prepared for the FDA to require an ADCOM meeting in the third month but that is not something to be concerned about should it happen. Got to rush . I am very excited about the months ahead. Please do your own research. GLA.