Ann: Trading Halt, page-122

"Dilution of roughly 90% of the SP will occur. The only unknown is what the SP will be then. If it stays at 14 cents then the dilution will be relatively minor, 2-3 cents per share, but if the SP runs on and up the dilution (and the losses) will be greater."

Dilution of 90%+ is correct, but the other statements are not.

You're probably right with the 183m and 1.9b shares numbers so I'll use those.

The dilution is 1:10.4, presuming full take-up. It can be calculated today and is not affected by the future SP.

If the shares are issued on 26th/2nd, then yes, the SP should fall then because of some profit takers, but that is not dilution. Dilution is simply the 1.9b shares issued vs 183m existing shares. Then the future market cap has to be divided by 2.08b.

After the profit-takers are gone, then the SP will move towards its true value. Which will be based on the underlying value of the business, divided by the fully diluted shares on issue.

Call it $250m initial underlying value (including $190m newly injected cash and $60m for all brand assets and debt) divided by 2.08b shares = $0.12 SP.

Today's $0.14 SP suggests that the underlying value of the company might be $291m, so $190m new cash + $101m for the assets and debt.

You just have to bet whether in 3 years, the underlying company value will be significantly above $291m or not (meaning, above $0.14 SP).

But if participating at $0.10, you just have to bet whether the underlying value will be significantly above $208m (including $190m cash newly injected) (meaning, above $0.10 SP).

At $0.10, the assets are valued at practically nothing, just $18m.