WTC 0.45% $135.15 wisetech global limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-10

  1. 7,748 Posts.
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    I would provide the following insights for anyone interested, and to state my position I don't currently hold WTC, but i'm considering buying depending on how much WTC drops when it opens again.

    Personal/professional experience
    • My family comes from a background of logistics (I've never worked a day in my life in logistics, but my family and their friends still do)
    • The consensus of people still in the industry is that WTC is falling behind from both a tech and UI perspective. They were new and innovative 15 years ago, and greatly enhanced their efficiencies, putting a lot small-med freight forwarders ahead of the game. That competitive advantage has since disappeared. When it was Eagle, my families business took the tech on, had an operational edge and stuck with it until they decided to drop it last year

    Investment Experience
    • I work in finance, I deal with investments, investment managers, family offices, audit, accounting etc.
    • Yesterday I was at conference with the former Colonial First State team, and their aussie share fund presentation centered around the continued growth story of WTC. This in their eyes was one of the star investments of their portfolio, one that they expected to see significant revenue and EPS growth both over the short and long term. I consider them a very smart group, and have a long track record of picking pretty good businesses.
    • A long short manager I work with, absolutely hates WTC. Thinks their tech is garbage, questions their growth numbers, thinks customers aren't happy, almost identical commentary to the short report. He has been short WTC or rather was short WTC over the last 2 years. Obviously he has been burned pretty hard on that position, he is from a smaller fund than the former Colonial, but I also consider him an extremely smart investor and human being.

    So where does that leave us/me? I actually don't know. From my personal experience, anecdotes aren't always that reliable. Yes some people I know might be moving away from the tech, but that's only a very small sample. The industry is very fragmented and there are lots of operators. I also have no international on the ground information to go off.

    From an investment perspective, assuming the numbers are right, I think a discount around 20% of the current WTC SP is money for jam. We are seeing quite an escalation with respect to the number of activist shorters hitting the Aussie market. I'm not sure if they see us as the most vulnerable, stupid or we just have the most over-valued companies, but it's certainly a very convenient trend for those with an open position.
 
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