I agree 10% conversion is a high number but like I mentioned the Alliance works out to be over 12% so Alliance and Mogul thought it is doable. I personally working off 5% of their largest social media or fan base which is less than 1/2 the Alliance target or 1:20 people which sounds reasonable - 1% is the lowest.
I choose not to work from the total social media accounts as you could have 100k FB, 50k Twitter, 50k Insta, 80k youtube and 20k twitch total social accounts is 300k however the largest was only 100k - now their fan base could be 100->300k as not everyone will like/follow all of their social accounts however you would have to guess/assume that there is at least 100k given this is their highest.
Tier One is a harder one as they used combine for all their influencers and I CBF doing that much research but one person had 1.3M on a social account which is larger than Alliance so using the 5% could be okay.
The other part that I think will change in conversion rate will be small vs large - the smaller ones will likely have a higher uptake (take emiemi) as their fan base is tight so you could use higher than 5% say 10-20% where as these larger ones might not be as tight but i just go with a 5% average as a guess/forecast of potential.
Agree with revenue being small as well for this Qtr has everything hasn't really launched - Q1 there should be a good start in revenue but Q2 is where things would likely be really rolling.
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