Hoping for a really positive announcement here!
Thought I'd chip in with my own really simple calcs to show why I’m stillinvested here (and looking forward to the future), first buy was at 26c...
All figures from the debt refinancing prospectus. Assumes a stable operation at October's production rate (which IMO we're getting close to), and assumes that our product still continues to get sold above the floor price (but using floor price below).
Production figures from Oct 2019 = 17,951 wmt
Floor price – USD$550 / dmt = USD$517 / wmt ~ AUD$750/ wmt (using 6% discount dmt / wmt outlined in the glossary)
Cash costs – USD$365 / wmt ~ AUD$530 / wmt
Quarterly production = 53,853 wmt
Profit (before interest repayments) = 53,853 *(750 – 530) = $11.8M
Balance sheet borrowings = $192M, assume all ofthis at 15% pa = $28.8M p.a = $7.2M / quarter.
Profit per quarter = $4.6M
Even a 1% improvement on the finance costs is worth $1.9M p.a.
The September quarter obviously looked a lot worse than this, but if this is where things are headed long term then it's looking good.
IMO, DYOR
Ann: Trading Halt, page-114
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