I looked at oppies versus full shares. At 0.2 with 0.7 outlay. The shares need to be 0.9 for breakeven.
There is also just 0.1 difference between them and full shares. So those that buy oppies get very little gain, but more risk. When these oppies hit the market there could be 100m on offer, very hard to get out if you buy them.
Sure they have 2 years plus, but they have issued oppies before with 2 years that expired..
So in czns case, the shares need to be 1c after you take the option cost and exercise to make 10%. Ie your effectively paying 0.9 for them versus 0.3 for the share.
The action today is anyone's guess, the people that bought cr, paid more than the last cr and they had to allocate extra shares over the issue.
I don't feel with oversubscribed people paying 0.35 regardless of the oppies that are illiquid to be selling 1/2 pip less.
Remember they took the cr for good reason and did not need to.
The first dump was 28m shares, this is institution size. Its what triggered mums and dads into parting with there script.
For the last week the market has been starved of sellers at 0.3, with some trades forced up to 0.4
The depth was 50m at 0.3 and growing, eventually by starvation and market forces, trade would have moved to 0.4 freely. Can't be starved forever.
What can trigger is seeing the buyers wiped out at 0.3 and seeing 0.2. In the brain, it's like geez, if I don't get out I might miss selling at 0.2 and 0.1 is my only option and I don't wanna loose, so they part with them.
They would not sell earlier when they could see 0.3 buy and safety.
It's how prices are driven down and stock accumulated, keep selling, sit other side and take them. Ie sell backwards to yourself and in the process scared investors give you there shares.
In the 90s I got spooked and gave up my shares, and out of know where the selling slowed and buyers appeared, then up it went leaving me with no shares.
I'd mentioned I bought a small parcel last week when the price was 0.3. I bought at 0.4 to test, I pushed it up, but to my amazement seconds later it was pushed down via mid point to 0.3. It was not pushed back minutes later, but instantly. I thought after that, someone might want it at 0.3 based on the timing of that push down.
So it's possible there are motions to keep it low based on my trade test and today's sudden influx.
Someone may want, the cr has 300m odd shares hitting the market, nice amount to accumulate. So dump and get mum and dad also to dump.
It gave me a chance to add 1.2m, plus other folk here. I'll be back in tommorow for more as was happy to pay 0.4 easily. There's a buyer for every seller, so the more flushed out the better.
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