My assessment for operational points for rerate and growth of HCT over the next quarter will be 3 things: successful Covid19 testing, rapid worldwide distribution and ecommerce agreements and incremental uplift in sales revenue (reflected in the 4C and as guided over time by company)
Scientifically, feline surrogate coronavirus or covid19 is
im-material as the biochemical process and structure of Coronavirus are the same hence efficacy applies to all types of Coronaviruses. Path Away has been successfully tested against the broad range of Coronavirus of which Covid19 strain belongs. Too much emphasis on the actual strain (its a really nice to have).
Efficacy against the actual Covid19 from my perspective is a great thing to have as it attracts a status and brand on the ASX to be the first. However it is immaterial to the performance of the product against Covid19 hence the TGA has validated this as detailed below.
The results will not be black or white as I posted a while ago >99% is excellent and indicates that it will kill 1 in 100 people, it is still so much better than other non tested sanitisers.
The market does not believe in HCT because it has never had a track record or opportunity prior. The opportunity is present and now hence the urgency by the company to test. We have been very lucky to that Dr Martin and his network has gotten us an reputable lab in the UK as HCT could have taken any lab with a surrogate Coronavirus for testing. They really pushed for this result.
Taking a three month view, the announcement will significantly derisk Path Away and HCT so a proper revaluation most likely will ensure.
If the price does not go hypebole, definitely would be time to continue accumulating to be part of the deals and agreements that are definitely going to come through very fast. They have been waiting for these results to turn on their marketing campaigns. Then their supply chains will kick in with validated actual Covid19 sanitiser production. This is the phase you do not want to miss out on in particular when an announcement is released by the company on any sales and/or revenue number.
This is how I see it playing out over time
(20min delay)