Ann: Trading Halt, page-32

I only bought post CR, so I haven't analysed the deal closely.

I would suggest that you divide the offer amount by the number of shareholders, so as to determine what average allocation everyone would have to apply for if it were to fill.

Compare that figure to the median shareholding per person.

If the first figure were much higher than the second, that would indicate it is less likely to be fully subscribed.

ie if everyone needed to apply for $20,000 on average, but the average shareholder only holds $10,000, it might not be fully subscribed, as most probably wouldn't want to double or triple up- If you don't hold enough shares today to sell and pay for the allocation you are subscribing for, there is some risk that the SP will have dropped before they hit your account, so its not risk free in this situation.

On the other hand, if everyone only needed apply for $2000 to fill the SPP, then you'd expect it to be oversubscribed with those conditions.