MSB 3.76% $1.03 mesoblast limited

Ann: Trading Halt, page-614

  1. 6,420 Posts.
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    Because the uncertainty is low but not eliminated until trial results are released. The date of the release of results has a number of potential windows, some a very short time away (weeks), some up to 3 months. At that time, there will be an immediate need for 1000's of treatments as it would likely be approved initially under Emergency Authorisation Use (EAU).

    Manufacturing must start now. Other forms of finance ie debt may not be as easy to obtain without the EAU (at minimum). There will be a window where Rem-L will be the only commercially scalable treatment which has demonstrated statistically significant advantage over SOR. That will result in a significant rush for orders from every Western country (read; able to afford) to secure their supply. That sales opportunity will dwarf whatever people think have been lost by going early for funds in this manner, imo.

    What happens if all the successful preliminary study data to date using various forms of stem cell treatments around the world are not replicated in MSB's formal Phase 3 study? Well, this raise will have been even more important and shrewd. Additionally, all the manufactured Rem-L will be nice inventory for their soon to be approved GvHD pediatric indication. No significant wastage of resources.

    I think to suggest the management somehow don't believe the ARDS trial results will be successful and that's why they are raising now instead of waiting for higher prices on the back of successful trial results, demonstrates a high level of paranoia and distrust of them. I assume you have a source for that level of distrust, though I am not interested those reasons. I am happy to follow the scientific data for the likelihood of success of the ARDS indication, most of which is independent of management. Anchored thinking is the source of many a lost investing opportunity, from my experience.
 
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$1.03
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