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10.4% $1.49 mesoblast limited

"I assume you have a source for that level of distrust"Probably...

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  1. ThereAbouts
    4,490 Posts.
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    12/05/20
    09:10
    Post #: 44564945
    Originallypostedbyimback
    Becausetheuncertaintyislowbutnoteliminateduntiltrialresultsarereleased.Thedateofthereleaseofresultshasanumberofpotentialwindows,someaveryshorttimeaway(weeks),someupto3months.Atthattime,therewillbeanimmediateneedfor1000'softreatmentsasitwouldlikelybeapprovedinitiallyunderEmergencyAuthorisationUse(EAU).

    Manufacturingmuststartnow.OtherformsoffinanceiedebtmaynotbeaseasytoobtainwithouttheEAU(atminimum).TherewillbeawindowwhereRem-LwillbetheonlycommerciallyscalabletreatmentwhichhasdemonstratedstatisticallysignificantadvantageoverSOR.ThatwillresultinasignificantrushforordersfromeveryWesterncountry(read;abletoafford)tosecuretheirsupply.Thatsalesopportunitywilldwarfwhateverpeoplethinkhavebeenlostbygoingearlyforfundsinthismanner,imo.

    WhathappensifallthesuccessfulpreliminarystudydatatodateusingvariousformsofstemcelltreatmentsaroundtheworldarenotreplicatedinMSB'sformalPhase3study?Well,thisraisewillhavebeenevenmoreimportantandshrewd.Additionally,allthemanufacturedRem-LwillbeniceinventoryfortheirsoontobeapprovedGvHDpediatricindication.Nosignificantwastageofresources.

    Ithinktosuggestthemanagementsomehowdon'tbelievetheARDStrialresultswillbesuccessfulandthat'swhytheyareraisingnowinsteadofwaitingforhigherpricesonthebackofsuccessfultrialresults,demonstratesahighlevelofparanoiaanddistrustofthem.Iassumeyouhaveasourceforthatlevelofdistrust,thoughIamnotinterestedthosereasons.IamhappytofollowthescientificdataforthelikelihoodofsuccessoftheARDSindication,mostofwhichisindependentofmanagement.Anchoredthinkingisthesourceofmanyalostinvestingopportunity,frommyexperience.
    "I assume you have a source for that level of distrust"


    Probably from witnessing years and years of similar disappointments from MSB lol.
    MSB Price at posting: $3.44 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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    lightbulb Created with Sketch.  Great analysis
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