All good and I think you make some constructive points. But with respect, that's not how markets value resource companies that are in mine development stage. They tend to price on NPV, not EBITDA, and they price ahead, not behind like you have.
Enterprise valuations for mine dev stage (DFS/BFS) resource companies are on average around 29% EV/NPV, and that excludes outliers (extreme valuations on either side).
ABR has a vanilla project. The DFS is straightforward, the project doesn't carry country risk, Fort Cady has been mined, good management, no disruption etc. There are no significant risks beyond what any DFS already models for.
I posted earlier that I think the market is pricing ABR on EV/NPV by project phase, not by EV/NPV for the whole project. So far it's followed that valuation.
To illustrate: Phase 1A (priced ahead on EV/NPV) values ABR at $100m EV based on NPV of AU$300m. Phase 1A/1B (priced ahead on EV/NPV) values ABR at $350m EV based on NPV of AU$1.1bn
Fort Cady at Phase 1A is mostly (not entirely) de-risked, pending final permit. ABR's EV is $152m, which is nearing the halfway mark of the valuations above.
