I tend to think they're raising at this time because they know, quite sensibly, they won't be able to count on ex-directors to put fresh cash into the company, but also because they want a buffer for the likely scenario the corona bull runs out of steam.
We had a heads-up from GW about some equity/debt financing in his recent FNN presentation. This was a great effort in many ways, but we didn't see a 42c offer coming, which feels low but also likely to be taken up.
I've been wondering why they've gone for a 26% discount, and the fact that you've highlighted the 40c options above could explain it. Knowing there's 11 million of those in circulation this year, why would a cornerstone or sophisticated investor accept a much higher premium?
There's reason to think the CDP is close to being sanctioned, in which case all could be forgiven quickly. A few million dollars extra at this point can achieve that plus shore up operations for a couple of years. (I think they're covering the $16.5 million build cost here, no suggestion the full $23 million is needed upfront, which includes three years of plant operating costs.)
Institutions have already swallowed half the potential new shares, and presumably sophs are up next. An entry by a larger partner appears ruled out. I suspect that's quite deliberate, reflecting the company's reluctance to cede further influence early.
It strikes me as a lagom approach to fundraising - not too much, never too little. It keeps their dealmaking powder dry for the day the completed CDP is doing what it should. We can only hope they get a move on now.
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