PBurg, if you read our posts here, we (well, at least I) do think Doug and Hamish and Graham lost a bit of focus over the last while. But that is just a hunch. For sure they had a lot of time and effort invested in the scheme. And if what you say is true re PNG, the answer would be EPC is not the Zenith main game anymore. And who knows if what you say is true? And who knows the 'impact' it would be 'next year'. It may be just a swings and round-a-bouts thing.
And Zenith never report anything unless it is signed or unsigned - etched or unetched in stone. They never hunch. They never 'guess' what will be material 'in the future'. Just like they have have not forecast MW signings on their 450 MW 'in negotiation' contracts. It would be easy for them to say 'oh, we will get at least 20% - or 90 MW'. But they just do not.
For example, recently I asked Zenith re EKJV. I know the contract it 'up'. And I 'assume' they are still providing power there. But the answer I got was 'month by month, short term invoices are not material. And if negotiations result in a new contract THEN an announcement will come. WHEN all is signed.'
re EPC EBITDA, I did put it to Peter if the EPC would be as low as we saw in the last half year. It was so low. And he simply said 'yes'. And the EPC was super low. And that included OkTedi. And, funny, I had a wee discussion here last year (perhaps with you) re the importance and volume of work at Ok Tedi. I was told (by posters here) Zenith is really doing bugger all up there. So, to provide truth to all sides, I guess they are having some operational oversight on the 142 MW, but not a lot of hands on work, and in terms or EBITDA I am told it is not much, and the half yearly kind of backs that up.
You cant have it both ways, you cannot say last year 'oh, they do bugger all in PNG', then if you hear a rumour re the bugger all contract, you say 'oh, look at the material thing' that may happen in a few months - it is much bigger than bugger all.
In any case, Zenith is a long term BOO Baby now And not even our baby anymore. It is Cabal bound.
ZEN Price at posting:
95.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
