A lot going on here. Bears look to be having a field day. Those bitten by GMV are right to be very sceptical.
I have and continue to do a lot of work on GMV. IMO, the company has turned the corner and I am comfortable sticking my neck out here calling the bottom and a significantly higher share price in the next 3, 6 and 12 months. Why....
The US IDTF business is absolutely firing, with more to come. Based on my numbers the business could be annualising 130,000 patients by years end. With an average revenue per patient of $192 that's $25m USD a year. When I put these numbers to the company the reply I received was patient numbers were a little high, but average patient revenue was a little low. Either way revenue is on the up and significantly. The only issue is timing as some reimbursements take up to 90 days for the company to receive.
Furthermore, these changes to reimbursement codes are a significant positive for GMV. Basically, reimbursement codes for cardiac monitoring were only temporary and these changes make them permanent. Better still reimbursement codes have been widened and prices increased. This adds certainly to the industry and the business model. And it's certainly that has seen brokers upgrade IRTC to over $200 per share. The market loves this sector and has pushed IRTC up from $120 to $190 in 2 days!
IMO, this cap raise was a result of a number of institutional investors seeking large amounts of stock in GMV. Institutional interest has been sparked by this major increase in the IDTF business as per my revenue assumptions above. IMO this cap raise is significantly over subscribed as of this morning. The amount to raised is still to be be confirmed. But my understanding is the raise was managed in house, so no brokers and went to a handful of domestic and international institutional investors. They are not going to flip the stock for a few cents. They are in for the medium term.
What they use the money for will be interesting and don't have a feel on that yet.
I do see the share price coming off post this raise as many retail investors will just bale. But IMO these institutional investors will mop them up pretty quick. I will be looking to increase my position.
Over the next weeks and months I expect a lot of positive news:
Continued updates on the IDTF business. Monthly patient numbers, average patient revenue, more hospitals on boarded etc.
An update on Livecare and All Country Home Care distribution agreements.
New distribution agreements.
Follow up purchase orders from Meditel in Italy.
Nasdaq IPO is not far away. Fuson are working on the prospectus and should lodge with the SEC by quarter end.
So, sticking by neck out again. I'm targeting a 10 times sales valuation. Which could be conservative if GMV continue to grow patient and revenue numbers quarter of quarter. My initial target is a $250m USD market cap. Or $350m AUD based on what's been announced so far. Or with say 800m shares on issue is a share price of 44c.
GMV Price at posting:
6.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
