The price is right but I think it's important to understand there is an imporant equity componemt to the theorietical valuation. NPV is calcualted including cash deductions for the capex, thus cash equity included in the debt to equity capex funding is 'added back' onto the NPV. If the JV deal goes ahead SFX's $65M share of the JV cash is added onto their 50% of the NPV, less coroporate costs and loan fees which are outside capex costings.
No big deal but if the JV went ahead next week SFX would be 23c cash backed plus own 50% of the $1B NPV. After years of profits SFX will technically still have little cash because it will all go to paying back debt. Even though SFX still only owns 50% of the NPV SFX should be worth more with 100% of the capex paid as equity and zero debt than when we start with mostly debt and a small amount of equity.
Where SFX actually trades depends on the stock market conditions, outlook for our products, how many sellers want out and how many buyers are attrcted in. Given the equity already invested in permiting, NT payments, camp, early works etc, an infusion of another $65M ontop of our $7M cash balance means mid 20's represents approx zero contribution from NOP. 60c/share would represent an additional ~30% of TB's post-tax NPV8% after deducting cash for corp costs and fees. PLenty of upside once the plant is running and risks are reduced...
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The price is right but I think it's important to understand...
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