So let’s summaries and speculate a bit here. We are are at 20c....

So let’s summaries and speculate a bit here. We are are at 20c. Company signed 3 agreements since May with total A$4.5m, board changes, story changed etc we are at 20c which is pretty much fair value I would say as we are now at five or take A$60m mcap. Not a small cap yet but slowly punching our way to the small cap from option, value at 10m mcap (when trades around 3.5c) to now 60m.

reviewing the semi annual report as some of the other distinguished friends like Fatman et al already highlighted, there’s some big pipeline and bread crumbs for what we should expect.

it’s not easy to value Dotz since it’s a combination of R&D company with Super innovative tech that is a game
changer so you need to value the potential and already a cash generating company which you need to put a multiple on but can be aggressive given the next 3 years it’s the massive growth phase

I try to look at Dotz as a company with potential strong optionality backed by a stable cash flow business (so the PPE marking, cigarette, oil and gas, plastics etc etc)

if existing run rate prevails we can make 10-15m of revenue per year, in 2021 so taking 10x very conservative multiple puts us at 100-150m mcap or say
30-40c per share at the current diluted SH and options

of course if we can achieve for the next 3 years 20-30m in sales per year which is not ludicrous with strong momentum, we will be a 60-80c fair value and more

but the wild card is some of the below which, if materialise, can bring us another 50c-2$ in add on value

- the COVID real time Detection development w FullDNA and Sheeba medical hospital as highlighted in the preside query and SA report. This is by it see is worth 1-2$ per share and more if successful and can be developed in a timely manner with the right partners. I think this is a huge option value

- the Zohar Dalia pilot agreement for the use of ValiDotzTM markers in disinfectant materials to verify surface coverage for signs of viruses, including COVID-19. If this works this is probably worth 30-50c a share (I think it’s resonantly to assume that this can generate $10m of revenue per year with a conservative multiple of 10-15x I value this business at 100-150m (or 25-30 per share)

so the way I look at this we have here
bear case: 30-40c. Not much materialised, company able to do $10-15m rev per year
base case: 60-80c based on 20-25m run rate and add on say Zohar Dalia deal which means we can be at $1-1.2$ easily
bull case: diagnostics happens. Zohar Dalia and bunch of other stuff. We are at $4. Just like Fatman said...


risk reward- to buy here at 20 or 25c is Win Win and still dirt cheap to the potential in all scenarios

let’s see what this contract is but of course I can go back and recalculate everything

Good Luck to all holders and waiting for the good news!!!