PPH was a big milestone investment for me. I initially entered at $4 and recently exited on the weakness as it hit a stop. I made a critical mistake of topping up on each new breakout - which in hindsight is not a very wise investment strategy and makes little sense. I should have exited with a 80% profit but instead I exited with a 20% profit through the dilution of my top-ups.
The issue PPH has undergone is value distortion due to the apparent COVID tailwind. A lot was built into the price through anticipation of COVID really fuelling the company to essentially the next level. Then we see the "0" customer growth metric but in hindsight isn't as bad as it's been interpreted and we are left with a company who is at more of a operating leverage growth stage than customer growth stage. This isn't to say PPH can't rally again, I actually argue now would be a decent time to consider entry with a very tight stop loss close to the very obvious medium term horizontal that has been created from the first time the company has legged up. They re-iterated their guidance which is great and even upgraded it. I imagine fundies are worried about how sustainable this level of growth will be once the benefit of the CCB acquisition wears off.
It is a tricky investment thesis as I do believe PushPay are market leaders in their own right, but are perhaps reaching more of a blue-chip operating leverage stage as mentioned previously. This makes further growth hard to earn in the eyes of the market but not out of the realm of possibility.
